Friday, September 5, 2014

Breaking News: People are paid to do stuff they wouldn't normally do

Just over a year ago, there was a small kerfuffle in the corner of the internet I inhabit over an article by LSE anthropology professor David Graeber titled, "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs". Graeber's article is equal part socioeconomic theory of ruling class domination and armchair diagnosis of why everyone doesn't love their jobs all the time. 

The article begins by musing over Keynes's old, obviously wrong 1930 prediction that, by the year 2000, productivity increases would leave us all only working 15 hour weeks to maintain the same standard of living we had in 1930. Keynes is right that we could each work 15 hours a week and live "as well" (but obviously differently due to technology changes), and in fact probably a bit better, than we did in 1930, but clearly everyone has chosen to continue working 30, 40, and if you walk around Wall Street 60, 70, or more hours. The standard economics explanation is that we want to consume more than we did in 1930, or that maybe we get kind of bored when we don't have something to occupy us. 

Graeber does not come to the standard economics explanation. He says that the "standard line" must be false because our current jobs have little to do with our current consumption pleasures (more on that assertion later), and instead formulates the theory that we overwork ourselves to entrench the dominance of the rich at the expense of the proletariat. I think the following two passages summarize Graeber's arguments well. On the conspiracy: 
" The answer clearly isn’t economic: it’s moral and political. The ruling class has figured out that a happy and productive population with free time on their hands is a mortal danger (think of what started to happen when this even began to be approximated in the ‘60s). And, on the other hand, the feeling that work is a moral value in itself, and that anyone not willing to submit themselves to some kind of intense work discipline for most of their waking hours deserves nothing, is extraordinarily convenient for them."
And on the results:
"For instance: in our society, there seems a general rule that, the more obviously one’s work benefits other people, the less one is likely to be paid for it.  Again, an objective measure is hard to find, but one easy way to get a sense is to ask: what would happen were this entire class of people to simply disappear? Say what you like about nurses, garbage collectors, or mechanics, it’s obvious that were they to vanish in a puff of smoke, the results would be immediate and catastrophic. A world without teachers or dock-workers would soon be in trouble, and even one without science fiction writers or ska musicians would clearly be a lesser place. It’s not entirely clear how humanity would suffer were all private equity CEOs, lobbyists, PR researchers, actuaries, telemarketers, bailiffs or legal consultants to similarly vanish. (Many suspect it might markedly improve.) Yet apart from a handful of well-touted exceptions (doctors), the rule holds surprisingly well. "
So, I'll begin on the conspiracy. Graeber's idea is an interesting (and arguably mutually exclusive) twist on the standard liberal interpretation of the ruling class employment conspiracy, which is that companies are unprofitably employing too few workers to keep unemployment high and thus wages low. Now, we hear that corporations are unprofitably employing too many workers to prevent the social revolution that will topple them from their 1% throne. 

The hole in this theory is that firms are engaging in this unprofitable activity. These kinds of theories too often assume that the wealthy have the power to do whatever they want. Any firm that hires unprofitable workers can be undercut by another firm willing to stick with an efficient work force until the first firm goes out of business or follows suit. Even if we assume that Graeber's argument that our 40 hour work weeks are all that stand between us and a revolution of the proletariat is correct, then it's not too hard to see why firms would fail to stop the revolution. No one firm can employee all the surplus labor to prevent the revolution, so every firm needs to chip in. However, any one firm can easily free ride off the efforts of the other firms, enjoying the extra profits and protection from revolution. This means firms will shirk their responsibilities until everyone is only working 15 hours/week and joining the American Communist Party in their spare time. 

Graeber has the sense to argue that the modern 40 hour work week has emerged naturally through trial and error, not from some plan hatched in a smoky board room. Nonetheless, it's unclear what mechanism would drive us towards this outcome instead of revolution. Why are companies individually giving up profits when it does them no good? Why are workers choosing to work so long when they don't need the money for anything useful? The most logically consistent answer is that these workers are profitable for the companies and that the workers want to do this work because they will use the money to buy something they care about more than their free time. We could start from the assumption that workers and firms are stupid/deluded and maybe get to Graeber's conclusion, but I don't see why that should be the automatic starting point. 

I think Graeber's speculation on the effect of the modern BS job is more interesting than his questionable conspiracy theory. Graeber argues that the workers of the world are either A. well paid in a BS job we hate or B. poorly paid and under appreciated in a job that's useful but society has conspired to repress. Standard economic theory has a pretty good explanation for why jobs that seem useful, even necessary (garbage collectors) are not paid as much as jobs that seem superfluous (pro baseball player), and it's the same reason diamonds cost more than water. The problem for garbage collectors is that it's a job that anyone, (with lots of hard work!), can do, whereas only a select few have the talents to be pro baseball players. The result is that companies (or city governments) don't have to pay as much to attract the necessary number of garbage collectors whereas the baseball teams need to pay a lot to snatch up the scarce baseball talent. As Tabarrok notes at the link, "Moreover, it’s good that prices are determined on the margin. We would be very much the poorer, if all useful goods were expensive and only useless goods were cheap." The same logic applies to trash collection. Is this fair? Probably not! That's why I think redistribution makes so much sense, but that's different than saying that the wages of garbage collectors are being repressed by the 1%. 

But the wage issue aside, I think Graeber is right that a lot of people hate their jobs. Wouldn't it be great if we could spend time doing things we love like painting, writing, and playing music instead of boring stuff like accounting? First of all, I think Graeber undercounts the extent to which jobs he, (or even the people doing them!) regard as BS do play an important role in bringing us the stuff we want. A lot of my fellow K students enjoyed study abroad, but we needed an airline to get us there! Graeber's theory would explain that the ones necessary to get us abroad, the pilots, stewards, baggage handlers, ect. are underpaid so that the airline can employ a bunch of finance, PR, and HR people to prevent the revolution. But, has Graeber ever thought of what would happen to a flight if the price of oil suddenly shot up? Airlines operate on thin profit margins, and an unexpected oil shock can make an airline so deeply unprofitable that a ten or twenty dollar increase can drive them out of business before the price goes down or the airline can adjust. Thus, airlines employ lots of people who try to forecast the price of oil and invest on oil commodities in such a way that if the price goes up, they'll make money to offset the losses on flights. Thus, we can always count on flights to carry us to the chateaus of France or the jungles of Thailand even if there's a crisis in Syria. Thanks BS finance jobs! I could go on through the list, pointing out how jobs it's easy to label as BS serve very useful functions that result in us being able to buy stuff and do things we want, for a price of course, which is why we work because we want those things! The problem is that the modern economy is complex, so it's not always clear how any given job is useful. But, if you're being paid for your work, that means some group of people out there is willing to give up their hard earned cash to avail themselves of some good or service you're involved in producing. 

However, it's still true that a lot of people in Graeber's BS job category dislike their work. Is this the ultimate downfall of capitalism, the sign that we are stuck in an endless rat race? I think Graeber's problem is that he's someone who likes the intellectual pursuits of academia and romanticizes blue collar work (to be clear, I mostly fall into this category as well!). Graeber thus assumes that anyone not able to engage in this kind of lifestyle must wish they could enter Graeber's world of intellectual and physical pursuits. But how do people spend free time when they suddenly have more of it? Well, according to the American Time Use Survey, when people become unemployed, they spend about 20 more minutes a day reading/writing or exercising and 100 more minutes a day watching TV (see table 1 on page 5). Furthermore, people enjoy their free time less, evidence that work, even work we don't love or find super satisfying, is an important part of having a balanced day and feeling productive. I think this SMBC comic sums up my thoughts well. 

There are lots of things in this world that we love so much that we do them for free, like blogging or making youtube videos. But then there are other things, like managing an airline's exposure to oil price risk, that are not so much fun that we'd do them in our spare time. The fact that we pay people willing to train for and do such jobs more than we pay people in jobs that are fun/satisfying is not evidence of a great 1% conspiracy or a sign that our work is keeping us from enjoying life. Rather, it's a way of saying, on a massive scale, "hey, I want to do something that requires you to do something that's not much fun, but I'm guessing you probably want stuff like eating out at restaurants, healthcare, or watching major league baseball, and that requires other people to do stuff that's not much fun. So, if you're willing to work so I can do the thing I want, I'll make sure you can get some of those other things you want". Fundamentally, it's because lots of people are willing to make that sort of trade off that we work 40 hours today instead of working 15 hours and living like we did in 1930. 






Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Phil's Travels Chart: Updated

Loyal readers will remember my chart from March breaking down where I'd spent time over the preceding 365 days. Well, I decided to update the chart to the day I returned back from NYC. I decided to make the categories more broad, but there are still many colors!


Phil's Travels 
Each slice shows the percentage of the preceding 365 days spent in that region. Current: 8/23/14 

Now that I'm back in kzoo for awhile, Michigan can slowly fill up the circle once again.

Dresden, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul

Here is a much overdo post on my Easter Vacation (that's what the brits call spring break) travels. I teamed up with a fellow K student at LSE and two other LSE General Coursers to take a trip around central Europe. Riley came over from Germany to join us through the middle part of our journey. In chronological order:

Dresden

We fly into Dresden from London early in the morning and stayed from one night, drawn mostly by the promise of German beer and sausage. There was indeed beer and sausage, but I was also pleasantly surprised to discover that Dresden is home to the Old Master's Gallery (except in German). The collection was basically the highlights of my late Renaissance art history class all in one ornately beautiful building. Highlights include Raphael's Sistine Madonna and Giorgionne's / Titian's Sleeping Venus. Dresden was also notable for the currywurst we enjoyed there.

We ate delicious currywurst 

Prague

Overlooking Prague
A view of Prague's castle in the distance
I think Prague wins my favorite city of the trip award. The main town was nestled down in a valley overlooked by a castle. We did the usual walking around the town and checking out the chapel and old cemetery, but the climb up to the castle offered the best views. Besides reaching the awesome castle and a vantage point over the entire city, you have to climb Prague's hill to reach a first rate (formerly?) monastic brewery. Although there were only four beers to choose from, every one was excellent and unique. The food was also generously portioned and my goulash was full of fresh meat and flavor. We found a number of great beers during our time in Prague and I gained a new appreciation of the simple and refreshing Bohemian pilsners and lagers.

Goulash at the monastery 
The Lobkowicz Palace collection was a fascinating cultural experience. The Lobkowicz's were a super influential Czech family who had all of their land appropriated and were forced to flee during the Czech communist period. When the iron curtain fell, the family returned and preserved their estates as a piece of history. The palace is fascinating as a place full of super cool old stuff (weapons, original Beethoven manuscripts, instruments, ect) and for a great audio commentary that guides you through the region's history from the perspective of the major events surrounding the Lobkowicz family. After visiting the palace, I started to notice Lobkowicz stuff everywhere.

Some of the great beers in Prague
Vienna
Our first stop: schnitzel the size of your face

Vienna was the most beautiful city of my trip. The city reminds me of a combination of Italy and Germany. German was the main language, and the first evening we had schnitzel the size of our heads. But wine was more popular than beer, gelato was the dessert of choice, and the architecture was somewhat mediterranean. The next time I return to Vienna, I plan on making a day trip to the Alps that surround the city.
Schonbrunn Palace

The trip to Schonbrun Palace and its gardens was fun, as was learning about the famous Empress Sisi and the rise and fall of her family's empire. My favorite cultural experience was the Kunsthistoriches Museum. In addition to having an impressive collection, the museum itself is an incredible structure filled with marble and gold. It was built at the height of the Austro-Hungarian empire, and so no expense was spared.

A fairground in Vienna had a respectable collection of pinball machines, including Medieval Madness
Budapest
Delicious food!

Budapest was an exhausting city but full of new places to explore. We started our time there with a three hour walking tour from an incredible hostess who also pointed us to a great local restaurant where I enjoyed more delectable goulash. Budapest is actually divided into two sides - the hip Pest and the more posh Buda. We went to some fun bars built in old ruins over in Buda and then spent the next day soaking at the Szechenyi Turkish baths. The baths were a series of indoor and outdoor pools marketed for their mineral composition and alleged health benefits. The elderly population can have their season passes paid for by the national health system, and indeed on our Wednesday visit the place was filled with older men and women soaking in saunas or hunching over jets.
Church along our walking tour

Buda is home to some nice restaurants (still cheap by US, and especially London, standards) and a giant hill that gives you a fair view across the city. Still, for young travelers, most of the action was in Pest.

Rub the statue's belly for good luck!
Istanbul
View across the channel 

After spending about three days in each of these cities, we ended our trip with six full days in Istanbul. We were all excited to be in a part of the world so different from anywhere we'd been before. In Dresden, Prague, Vienna, and to a somewhat lesser extent Budapest, english was common and the cities were definitely Western in their socialization. We were hoping for something different in Istanbul. Minarets broadcasting calls to prayer were a welcome change of pace from the bells of cathedrals that had dominated most of my travels, and the views out into the Black Sea were beautiful. Given that I was visiting an Islamic state, I was surprised at the level of secularization. While there were plenty of burqas, there were also plenty of skinny jeans and fashionable head scarves. The highly imperfect analogy that I use is that Istanbul was as Islamic as a rural southern part of the US is Christian. I imagine that the rest of Turkey is much less cosmopolitan.

The Hagia Sophia
During our week in Istanbul, we stayed at a hostel in the Beyoglu, which is right across the river from Fatih where all the big sites like the Hagia Sophia and the Blue Mosque are. Using another imperfect analogy, I would call Beyoglu the Brooklyn of Istanbul, just in the sense that it seems to be a place where more people, and often younger people, live. Beyoglu is probably most famous as the home of Taskim Square, the site of many protests over the past year and a half. I enjoyed staying in Beyoglu because I thought the food was better and cheaper and it was nice to get a sense of Istanbul residents living outside of the main tourist area. I was struck by how the roads around the major sites were all perfect, and there was an excellent tram system running from Beyoglu through the main areas of Fatih. However, outside of these major and tourist-filled corridors, the roads were uneven and public transit sparse.

View from river cruise
The big mosques and sites in Istanbul were amazing, but I was underwhelmed by the food (which was good), but I had been led to believe that Istanbul was one of the best places for street food. I would like to return someday and explore more of the city, which is huge and home to over 14 million people.

I was happy to be able to explore so much of the world I had never been to before! Hopefully I will be back to see more.







Monday, April 14, 2014

Exam Revision at LSE

Now that I'm done with my trip, the last leg of my journey at LSE begins: studying for exams. When I applied to LSE and learned there was a five week break between Lent and Summer term, I naively assumed that it was an actual break. Actually, because all of one's grade at LSE is based on the final exams, you get some rather perverse effects that lead most students to slack off for most of Michaelmas and Lent terms then study their butts off over most of the Easter Holiday and straight into Summer term. 

As a General Course student, I'm in a somewhat different situation. This being a rare chance to be in Europe, I naturally wanted to spend most of my Easter Holiday traveling and not holed up in the library. In addition, I am blessed to have the opportunity to visit Italy with my mom and dad and see my Italian relatives next week, and then have my parents and sister join me for a week in London the week after that. Naturally, I am very excited to see my family and explore Italy and London with them! However, the result is that instead of taking three weeks of Easter Holiday to study and then not letting up until exams in late May / early June, I only have one week of studying over the holiday and am going to be spending most of the first week of Summer term with my family.

However, I think I've been keeping up with my coursework more than most LSE students (I was one of four students out of my class of 25 to show up for a mock exam in my economic history class at the end of Lent term), and I'll do a bit more studying during the time I have. Altogether, I think I'll be fine, and I actually prefer having a few more weeks of really good fun with friends and family to having somewhat easier studying days. 

However, today is not one of those days of really good fun, but rather intense studying. So, I'm off to the library! 

(As implied in the title, I should not call it studying, but revision if I want to be properly British!) 

Updates to Come

I returned on Friday from my 18 day trip to Dresden, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, and Istanbul and am still a bit exhausted from whole thing! I had a great time though with some wonderful people.

As usual, I really don't feel like dealing with uploading a bunch of photos right after the trip, but rest assured that I will be updating this space soon (and Facebook).

Blogroll update

Observant readers may note that I've made a few updates to the blogroll on the righthand side over the past month. The reason is that there have been a few big shakeups recently in the wonkosphere. First, Ezra Klein left wonkblog to start a new venture about three or four months ago. Shortly thereafter, Mathew Yglesias left Moneybox at Slate as did a few other wonky writers at the Washington Post and the New York Times. A few weeks ago, they all came out together with Vox, a website dedicated to posts discussing politics, economics, and explaining the news. Meanwhile, Nate Silver left the New York Times and brought FiveThirtyEight to ESPN. I too was scared that he would turn into some sports jock, but the website still satisfyingly dedicates the majority of its space to politics, economics, and general data analysis, allowing me to cheerily skip over the boring stories about baseball. Nate has also poached and found some good talent from across the internet. Vox and FiveThirtyEight together probably have the majority of my favorite writers on the internet, so this is naturally very exciting for me. A third link I've added is Emma Pierson's blog, Obsession with Regression. Pierson is 22 years old (!) and already involved in a lot of interesting statistical work with groups such as 23andme, Okaycupid, and Eharmony. She also writes at FiveThirtyEight, which is how I heard about her. Next year, she's going to be a Rhodes Scholar doing something incredible and making me feel inadequate for not being remotely close to her current successful nerdy trajectory. Nonetheless, her writing is very interesting, passionate, and funny.

Check out the three new sites!

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Phil's Travels in One Chart

Did you all like my catchy Wonkblog-worthy title? I'll be up to SEO in no time.

Anyways, here's a chart of the number of days I've spent in different geographic locations over the past 365 days.


I predict that things will be even more colorful by the time I make it back to Kalamazoo, but by the end of my senior year, "Midwest" should occupy the vast majority once again. After I graduate though, the chart will once again be changing (most likely, if I go to grad school somewhere in the midwest, I may have to subdivide region)!